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Tourism forecasting questions.

Tourism forecasting questions.

Find Tourism forecasting university examination questions in acaproso.com

# Question
1

Explain why tourism forecasts are important in the following tourism functions.

  1. Tourism advertisement and marketing
  2. Tourism planning at the level of an individual business
  3. Firm`s profit maximization
  4. Tourism planning at National level

Long answers
2

Discuss the concept that “forecasting is not an exact science” give four points.


Short answers
3

Explain briefly how the following factors can affect tourism forecasts.

  1. Political factors
  2. Technological factors
  3. Environmental factors
  4. Economic factors

Short answers
4

Show how the following tourism forecasting  methods work.

  1. Naive Methods
  2. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
  3. Market Survey
  4. Scenario planning

Short answers
5
  1. Study the following table of time series demand data for country M and use the smooth exponential equation to find the forecasts from year 2008 to year 2017. Assume the smoothing coefficient is 0.9.
YEAR NUMBER OF VISITORS(ACTUAL VALUE) FORECAST
2008 50,404  
2009 55,600  
2010 55,900  
2011 64,000  
2012 66,704  
2013 69,405  
2014 71,000  
2015 73,500  
2016 75,400  
2017 -  
  1. Sketch the graph of forecasts against (Vs) Time and tell about the trend you have observed.

Short answers
6

Write short notes on the following:

  1. Time-based quantitative forecasting methods
  2. Explanatory variable in demand forecasting (with help of a graph)
  3. Subjective forecasting methods
  4. Coefficient of correlation in forecasting
  5. Difference between Simple Linear and Multiple regression analysis.

Short answers
7

In January 2012 , arrivals in Morogoro were 20 tourists and they are expected to rise by a fixed number of 10 tourists a month up to June 2012. Using linear regression analysis, estimate the arrival level for July 2012.


Mathematical Calculation
8

What do you understand by the term ‘tourism demand forecasting’?


Short answers
9

Explain how the following factors can affect the future tourism demand:

  1. Social changes
  2. Environmental changes
  3. Technological changes

Short answers
10

The following linear regression model was developed from a certain tour guiding company . Study the model to answer questions (i) and (ii).

Y=200+55(I)-40(P)+13(T_{1})-25(T_{w}), where

Y=effective annual demand for tourism

I=ammount of disposable income (say in US$)

P=price (US$) of tourism product

T_{1}=Leisure time (hours) per year and

T_{w}=Work time (hours) per year.

  1. What implications can you drawn from this model?
  2. Suppose in the above model, the number of tourists (Y) was initially 2,000,000 per year at a given price (P), leisure time (T_{1}) , work time (T_{w}) and the amount of  disposable income (I). What will be the new tourism demand if work time increases by 40 hours per year, other factors remain constant?

Mathematical Calculation